Asymptomatic People Unable to Spread Rona @ All

[GrandpaBernard]

For any of you who roll maskless inside of elevators like I do

[Citizen Koba]

Different studies are coming up with different answers, man, but yeah there's general agreement that the 17% or so of asymptomatic carriers are far less likely to infect others than symptomatic people (42% less according to a metaanlysis of 13 studies apparently)...





Another Lancet study from a coupla days ago shows an even lower (78ish % less) infectivity rate for asymptomatic patients but it's still a fair way from zero. There does remain healthy and legitimate debate over the necessity for and efficacy of severe lockdown measures of the general poulation though.

[1bad65]

Interesting how so often the 'experts' are shown to be dead wrong.

[GrandpaBernard]

Interesting how so often the 'experts' are shown to be dead wrong.

experts contradict each other too

People going off their personal experiences and choosing which experts to agree with

[Citizen Koba]

experts contradict each other too

People going off their personal experiences and choosing which experts to agree with

Such is life, man, people select the data they want. It's one the reasons meta-analysis can be useful, though of course the selection of studies to be analysed can itself be subject to bias. Still... best we got.

Consensus accross multiple studies would seem to suggest that spread amongst the asymptomatic is significantly reduced - down to between 22 and 50% in most studies.

Good article on the Wuhan study here from the BMJ which acknowledges the insignificant asymptomatic transmission rate but also points to a coupla caveats raised by the studies authors themselves:

Findings not generally applicable

The researchers said that their findings did not show that the virus couldn’t be passed on by asymptomatic carriers, and they didn’t suggest that their findings were generalisable.

They said that strict measures—such as mask wearing, hand washing, social distancing, and lockdown—were successful in reducing the virulence of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan and that asymptomatic people in Wuhan may have low viral loads. This means that the finding cannot be applied to countries where outbreaks have not been successfully brought under control.

.” But, he added, “there is plenty of evidence elsewhere showing that people infected with covid-19 may be temporarily asymptomatic and infectious, before going on to develop symptoms.”

[GrandpaBernard]

Such is life, man, people select the data they want. It's one the reasons meta-analysis can be useful, though of course the selection of studies to be analysed can itself be subject to bias. Still... best we got.

Consensus accross multiple studies would seem to suggest that spread amongst the asymptomatic is significantly reduced - down to between 22 and 50% in most studies.

Good article on the Wuhan study here from the BMJ which acknowledges the insignificant asymptomatic transmission rate but also points to a coupla caveats raised by the studies authors themselves:

Yeah I’m confident rona is largely bogus

However asymptomatic not infecting at all sounds TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE

[HewJohnson]

This...actually makes sense.

[Citizen Koba]

Yeah I’m confident rona is largely bogus

However asymptomatic not infecting at all sounds TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE

Not bogus I think, there's a lot of people dying and ill, but I do believe the intitial overestimates of lethality that came outta China based upon deaths amongst the 20% or so who get serious Rona (meaning they overestimated mortality by a factor about 5) scared crap outta both the medical community and governments and has kinda formed the tone for reporting since.

Just based on excess mortality the numbers of COVID deaths you see reported probably ain't far outta line - or at least somethings killing a lot of people - but how you weigh that against the economic toll and the raised potential of death or serious harm as a result of lockdown and the diversion of resources from other areas of healthcare is complex.

I've said it before, but I sure as hell wouldn't want to be the one devising COVID response policy... pretty much whatever you do you're gonna come under fire, always gonna be a case of shooting for the best compromise.